Vacancy rates to rise in Montréal and Québec City

The CMHC released its vacancy forecast in the most recent edition of the Housing Market Outlook report.

Vacancy rates are expected to rise slightly until 2019 in Québec City and Montréal, to fall in Saguenay and Trois-Rivières, and to remain stable in Sherbrooke.

In Québec City, Sherbrooke and Saguenay, forecasts predict vacancy rates will reach or top 6% in 2019, a rate that hasn’t been seen in 20 years.

Vacancy rates for five census metropolitan areas (CMAs) 

Vacancy rates in Quebec ⁽¹⁾

(1) CMHC – Rental Market Report. The 1980–1987 vacancy rate is for the Montréal CMA.

Québec City

At 4.9% in 2016, the vacancy rate for the Québec City CMA is expected to reach 6% this year and 6.5% next year. A large number of rental units explains this jump, but it will stabilize in 2019 around the 6.5% level.

Montréal

The rental offering is expected to grow yearly in the next few years, with 4,000 units being built annually compared to 2,000 in 2016. The vacancy rate should gradually rise from 4.1% in 2017 to 4.4% in 2019.

Saguenay

As opposed to Québec City and Montréal, Saguenay’s vacancy rate is expected to fall, reaching 6% in 2019. With a rate of 7% in 2016, this drop reflects the drop in rental-unit construction of the past few years.

Sherbrooke

Showing consistent growth for several years, the vacancy rate will continue the trend in 2017, reaching 6.7% according to the forecasts. However, fewer new constructions will slow the rise slightly, steadying the rate at 6.4% in 2019.

Trois-Rivières

At 6.2% in 2016, Trois-Rivières’s vacancy rate is expected to fall to 6% in 2017. With a growing demand for rental units, the rate should decrease noticeably to about 5.5% in 2018. The trend will likely continue, bringing the rate to 5% in 2019.

This data was published as a forecast while awaiting the 2017 numbers, which will be released next week. You will also find them in your Proprio+ newsletter.